It is safe to assume that most of the deaths and infections from now on will be Trumpers. When you figure that 70% are fat or obese and many are smokers, there has to be some model that can predict how many of the will see an early grave. I am guessing that the redder the district the more deaths their will be.
When you compare Japan with Texas for instance, you will find the Texas has a population of 26 million, a low population density but 20 times more deaths and infections. Japan has 127 million people and a high population density. Deaths per 100,000 in Texas are off the chart compared to Japan. I also suspect that the death toll in Texas is being under reported. The metrics in Florida are similar and the Florida is also under reporting.
Another question is, would a MAGAt be compliant with mask social distancing suggestions if Trump told them to do so? I think most would not comply especially the younger ones. We know that there individuals who care about the rights and well being of others and individual who care little about the rights and well being of others. We know there are hedonists and epicurians. I think it's important that behavior of MAGAts vs Humans be part of the equations when predicting deaths.
An ethical question comes into play. Without any equivocation it's pretty much a given that the vast majority Trumpers are depraved and Hillary Clinton's estimation of their collective depravity was low by 40%. When you oberve the MAGAt rallies 90% of the attendees are not wearing masks or social distancing. If can assume that they will be as thoughless in other aspects of their lives I think we can predict with some accuracy their death and infection rate by per week. The ethical question would be should we try harder to warn the MAGAts or should will allow them to waddle off the proverbial cliff. We humans have warned them about smoking and gluttony with little success. We humans have spent billions trying the educate the about smoking and gluttony with little success.
The ethical question emerges into this. MAGAt are shitty creatures who are respsonsible for a lot of misery in the world. When you look at the vice in the Bible belt e.g. Teen pregnancy, murder rate, spousal abuse, divorce rate, smoking, meth, opiod abuse, STDs, racism, homophobia, and all the hate groups, would it be moral to intevene and save them from themselves so that they can continue to wreck the world and reproduce? They are a lot like an undesirable invsasive speices. They can't be taught a lesson in humanity, critical thinking or logic, that's clear. We humans can do every task they can do only better. The can easily be replaced with hard working law abiding ambitious productive moral South Americans so we really don't need them.
Without an education in statistics or math and relying on intuition I predict 2 million + COVID-19 deaths by late 2021. I say this because a lot of the MAGAts who get COVID-19 will get the flu and many will get it simultaneously. About 11% of Americans get the flu each year. I think that a strong flu before, after or during a corona virus infection could triple the lethality of both viruses. Anti-maskers are far more likely to get the flu, colds and COVID-19 because of their behavior and spread it mostly to their associates.
As far as I know the the COVID-19 RO number is at least 2.5 and the flu is 1.5.
How many will get flu and COVID-19?
How many will get flu and COVID-19 simultaneously?
How much greater will the mortality be if someone is infected with both simultaneously?
Great reeading
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